New Zogby Poll on State of the War

President Bush is under fire over his Iraq policies, as a majority of likely voters nationwide say they are not pleased with his handling of the war there, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.
As the President delivers his annual State of the Union message, 55% of the voting public favors a phased withdrawal of troops from Iraq, believing the U.S. has accomplished all it realistically can in the Middle Eastern nation.

Many disagree that the enemy in Iraq is getting worn down and that the U.S. will eventually win the war. Just 40% agree with that statement, while 59% do not. Similarly, while 41% favor escalating the Iraq conflict, using more missiles and heavy artillery against insurgents -- but a 56% majority opposes this approach.

The survey finds the nation sharply divided over the Iraq conflict, with 49% agreeing with the proposition that America cannot win the war in Iraq and that Iraqis should be left to sort out their own future without U.S. or allied intervention. However, just as many oppose that view.
Despite the misgivings of many about the war, a 53% majority of voters oppose an immediate withdrawal -- although 46% favor this position.

The survey does find that the groups that supported President Bush's 2004 re-election -- including conservatives, rural voters, Protestants and evangelicals, regular churchgoers, men, the investor class and Republicans in general -- are much more likely to favor continued involvement in Iraq and are more likely to reject arguments favoring withdrawal from the region. And NASCAR fans -- one of the groups closely watched during the 2004 elections -- are solid war supporters.

However, the President does not win the hearts and minds of a number of other groups, including moderates and liberals, large city dwellers, Catholics, women, non-investors, and households containing members of a labor union. And among a number of key swing constituencies, including small city residents and suburbanites, there are clear signs of fatigue with the war.

The President may also have his work cut out for him in retaining support on the subject from lawmakers who are eyeing a future White House run. Asked whether they would support a presidential candidate in 2008 who aggressively supports the Iraq War, 36% of poll respondents said they would. By contrast, 43% said they would instead support a 2008 presidential candidate who believes nothing more can be accomplished in the region and that a continued U.S. presence would be counterproductive.

The interactive survey of 13,456 likely voters nationwide was conducted Jan. 27 through 30. It has a margin of error of +/- 0.9 percentage points.