New Zogby Poll on Trouble with Repubs and Dems

Zogby International telephone survey shows Democrats nationally are accepting minority status in Congress; GOP faces weakness in its base

As political posturing for a key Congressional election season begins, neither Republicans nor Democrats across the country appear terribly happy with what they see from their leadership on Capitol Hill, a new Zogby International telephone poll shows.

While 61% of Republicans said they believe the GOP-led Congress has been a success "because it has passed much legislation during the past 11 years that has reflected Republican values," nearly one-third of Republicans think their party leaders in Washington are off-track.

The survey, conducted Feb. 15-18, shows 29% of Republicans rate the GOP leadership in Congress a "failure because it has passed legislation that has caused massive increases in federal spending and has not made meaningful progress on issues important to rank-and-file Republicans."

Ten percent said they agree with neither sentiment, or were unsure.

The survey also contained troubling news for Democrats. While high-profile Democrats in Washington, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, spar with GOP adversaries, 58% of self-described Democrats said they think their leaders should "accept their lower position in Congress and work together with Republicans to craft the best legislation possible."

Only 6% said the top goal for Democrats should be to defeat Republican legislation.

In another sign that Democrats, after spending 11 years in the minority in the U.S. House and most of those years holding minority status in the Senate, are now accepting their lower position, nearly one-quarter of Democrats -- 23% -- said they think Republicans do a better job running Congress.

Twenty percent of Democratic respondents to the latest Zogby Poll said their party leaders in Washington should work to highlight their policy differences with the majority Republicans, while 10% said they should concentrate on bringing federal money home to their own districts.

Despite the criticisms of the Republican Congress and its effectiveness by the GOP rank and file, Democratic voters are even
less enthusiastic about their own party's success representing their interests on Capitol Hill. Just over half of those Democrats
surveyed (55%) said they think Democrats in Congress have been effective "in representing Democratic values and Democrats nationwide," but 43% said their party representatives in Washington have been unsuccessful in that mission.

Nearly nine months before voters go to the polls, 59% of respondents said they believe it is not likely their member of Congress will be defeated in their re-election efforts this year, while 12% said they are unsure. In what could be a bad sign for Republicans, likely voters in the South -- a GOP stronghold -- appear most unsure their incumbent will win, as just over half -- 53% -- said their congressional representative will likely win re-election. While 32% said it is either somewhat or very likely their incumbent will be defeated this fall, 15% said they were unsure.

National election statistics show 96% of incumbents in the U.S. House, and 88% of U.S. Senate candidates won re-election to their seats in 2004.

The Zogby America poll included 1,039 interviews and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

New Zogby Poll on Bush's Approval Ratings

I know that some do not like polls, but for those who do, here's one of the latest.


President's job approval rating now stable, but base weakened by weight of Iraq War concerns, new Zogby International telephone poll shows

As America marks its official Presidents Day holiday, the nation's likely voters appear to have settled on a somewhat negative appraisal of work done by the current occupant of the White House, a new nationwide Zogby International telephone poll shows.

After slight moves above and below the 40% job approval mark over the course of the past few months, that's now the percentage of respondents who give him high marks for his leadership, while 60% said he deserves only fair to poor marks, the survey shows. As is usually the case, a similar percentage -- 42% -- said they believe the nation is moving in the right direction.

What is remarkable in this latest poll, conducted Feb. 15-18, 2006, is that President Bush shows weakness among the demographic groups that have comprised the heart of his political base over the past five years, according to Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International (Mr. Zogby's commentary on the poll is included below).

Bush performs best in the South, where 45% give him a positive rating, and the West, where 43% approve of his work. In the Central and Great Lakes region, he wins approval from 39%, while just 34% in the East give him passing marks.

Asked which two issues were the most important facing the nation right now, respondents said the war in Iraq and the war on terror were tops, with jobs and the economy considered the third-most important. Health care issues rated a distant fourth place. While Democrats and Republicans agreed that Iraq and terrorism were the two most important issues, they differed dramatically on which of the two issues was most important. Democrats said the Iraq war is clearly the most important matter facing the nation, while Republicans instead believe the war on terrorism was the most pressing concern.

Just 37% said Bush was doing an "excellent" or "good" job managing the war in Iraq, while 44% said he was doing well managing the broader war on terror.

Slightly more than one in every three -- 35% -- said the President was doing a good job handling foreign policy in general.

Pollster John Zogby: On Bush, his overall approval/disapproval rating is 40%-60%, but he has his lowest support yet from those groups who make up his political base. Among both conservatives and those who consider themselves very conservative, 61% approve of the job he is doing. He gets only 32% of independents, and only 73% among Republicans -- his lowest rating yet. Even rural voters give him just 50% approval, and 59% among those who say they are born again spiritually -- marking the lowest ratings from both of these demographic groups. And Bush remains low among men, married voters and investors.

As for Iraq, his approval/ disapproval rating stands at 37%-63%; just 12% of Democrats approve of his handling of the war, compared to 88% who disapprove, which are percentages similar to our last poll. Among independents, 26% approve of his war leadership, while 74% do not, which is down slightly from our last survey. Only 68% of Republicans support his handling of the war.

On his management of the war on terror, Bush wins 43% approval, down from 67%at the time of his re-election almost 16 months ago.

In a recent Zogby International telephone survey of likely voters nationwide, Mr. Bush ranked in the bottom half when respondents considered the "greatness" or "near-greatness" of the presidents of the modern era, stretching back to Franklin D. Roosevelt. While the incumbent ranked just under President Carter and his father, George Herbert Walker Bush, President Kennedy topped the list, considered "great" or "near-great" by 73%.

The latest survey measuring Bush's job approval rating, conducted Feb. 15-18, 2006, included 1,039 interviews with likely voters nationwide. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

All kinds of stuff

Wow, has it really been that long since I posted anything? Life just keeps getting busier and busier.
Trailady - How many Zogby polls? New ones all the time. Zogby is one of the top pollsters in America.

Sloopy - You miss my original thought posts? OK. I'll remember that.

And since you wanted an original post, here goes --

My son Michael is ABSOLUTELY AWESOME!!!!

On Wednesday of last week, he was part of a Spelling Bee for our county. He came in second!!! Wooo-hooo!! Went last 6 rounds head-to-head against an 8th grader! He's only in 4th. If anything happens to the girl who won, Michael goes to the state bee. He says that he is so glad he got 2nd and is praying that the girl stays ok.

New Zogby Poll on Super Bowl Ads

Survey finds ad remains in viewers minds as best of Super Bowl XL; Mean Joe Greene is Super Bowl all-time ad MVP

After some Monday-morning quarterbacking, Super Bowl XL viewers have decided that Budweiser's "Young Clydesdale" ad wins Sunday's other big game -- the battle for the top commercial spot.

At around $2.5 million per 30 seconds, Sunday's ads occupied the most expensive advertising real estate ever. And Zogby International finds Budweiser's ad a clear first-place finisher, the favorite of 15% of viewers. FedEx's hapless caveman, meanwhile, placed second at 10%, while Bud Light's "Secret Fridge" commercial rounds out the top 3 at 8%.

In the battle for age demographics, meanwhile, "Secret Fridge" strengthened its position, with 13% of viewers under 30 rating it the top pitch, but tanking among those age 30 and older. The "Young Clydesdale" spot, which climbed to 18% among the under-30 demographic, finished weakly among 30 to 49 year-olds. FedEx's fossil film, meanwhile, skewed older in its impact, taking 13% of 50 to 64 year-olds, second to "Young Clydesdale," which took 21% of this demographic.

"Young Clydesdale" was a top pick for a key reason with viewers: 79% of those who chose it said they did so because the spot made them "feel good." Humor and special effects were more likely to be chosen as rationales for fans of the other two top ads.

Some ads may have missed the mark in the ad agency championship, however. CareerBuilder.com's ad depicting workplace chimps celebrating the "growth" of sales at their company scored progressively worse as income level rose, besting the income categories below $25,000, but apidly receding among others. The "Young Clydesdale" spot, meanwhile, scored the equivalent of a touchdown and two-point conversion in the income category, heavily winning among those whose household incomes hovers between $35,000 and $50,000 per year. It also performed well with fans of another sport -- among self-professed NASCAR fans, it was the favorite by a massive five-to-one margin over the next closest competitor.

In the dubious category of most risqué or inappropriate ad, meanwhile, GoDaddy.com lived up to its past controversies. More than one-in-five viewers (22%) rated the domain name registry's eye-popping (not to mention camisole-strap tearing) entry as the hands-down winner of this category. Ameriquest's mile-high "Turbulence" spot hit some bumps in its ability to shock, taking just 6% of the ignoble category.

Mean Joe Greene Super Bowl Ad MVP

While No. 75 may not have been playing with the Steelers in their first Super Bowl win since the era when he led the team to four titles in six seasons, "Mean Joe" Greene's presence is still felt in the advertising world.

When viewers were asked to identify the best Super Bowl ad of all time from a limited list of perennially-mentioned favorites, the Steelers great gave his competitors for all-time greatest Super Bowl TV spot the same treatment he did the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowls X and XIII. That is to say, he crushed them.

The memorable spot that featured Greene, a young boy, a bottle of Coke, and that No. 75 jersey was the favorite of one in three Super Bowl XL viewers (33%) outpacing even Budweiser's famed amphibians -- the frogs whose throaty "bud-weis-er" echoed through a swamp beginning in 1995 placed second at 21%. Farther down the list were Apple's famed "1984" Macintosh spot, at 8%; Michael Jordan and Larry Bird's "HORSE" hoops showdown, at 7%; Bob Dole's "little blue friend" Pepsi spoof ad, at 3%; and the "I'm going to Disney World" campaign begun with Giants great Phil Simms in Super Bowl XXI, at 2%. Master Lock's perennial ads featuring a shooter taking on the famously tough padlocks barely registered, as did Frito-Lay's ads featuring washed-up politicians like former Governors Mario Cuomo and Ann Richards as well as another spot featuring former Vice President Dan Quayle.

The Zogby Interactive survey was conducted Feb. 5 and 6, and included 2,327 interviews of Super Bowl viewers nationwide. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.1 percentage points.

New Zogby Poll on Jobless Rate/Job Worries

Americans continue to worry about their own job security and the health of the national economy, despite today's announcement that unemployment has dipped to 4.7%, the lowest it has been since June 2001, a new Zogby Interactive survey finds.

Even as the unemployment rate and new jobless claims hit a five-year low, some in the survey indicated they still think their employment is tenuous - 24% said they feared losing their job in the months ahead. The survey also found a 54% majority expressing strong concerns about the economy based on their own experiences or those of acquaintances. Just one in three Americans (35%) said they were convinced the economy is in strong shape.

Americans were decidedly pessimistic about the long-term health of the U.S. economy. While just three in ten (30%) say the economy will continue to improve as it develops into a post-manufacturing economy, more than three in five (63%) believe the economy may be in for long-term trouble as international competition and energy prices both increase.

	Overall	GOP	DEM	IND
I am convinced that the American economy is in strong shape.	35%	74%	3%	24%
I am wary about the economy because while I have a good job and am financially secure, I know neighbors, friends and family who are not doing so well.	39%	15%	61%	44%
Nationally, the economy may be doing well, but I am not doing well and I am concerned the immediate future does not look good.	15%	5%	23%	19%

The survey finds a distinct partisan component to the economic outlook. Republicans are overwhelmingly confident about the strength of the U.S. economy, with three-quarters (74%) saying they are convinced it is in strong shape. Democrats take a starkly different view, with just 3% saying the economy is strong and 61% saying they are wary because, despite their own solid financial situation, they know others who are experiencing difficulties. An additional 23% of Democrats indicated they were not doing well in the economy. Political independents, meanwhile, tend to have a more pessimistic than optimistic outlook, with 44% saying the experiences of their acquaintances causes them to be wary about the economy -- although, with one in four (24%) saying the economy is in strong shape, their view is decidedly more favorable than the Democratic outlook.

Personal Economic Situation Upbeat

While many have an unfavorable outlook on the economy, based in many instances on their assessment of their own economic condition, the actual circumstances of Americans' personal financial situations may be brighter than the perception.

More than eight in ten (82%) Americans say the are either making progress toward long-term financial goals or keeping up with monthly expenses, while just 3% saying they are hopelessly behind on bills and have no chance of catching up. Another 13% express concerns that they are slowly falling behind on some bills.

As with other questions, a partisan component exists in this one as well. While 56% of Republicans say they are making progress toward financial goals, Democrats are less upbeat, with half (48%) saying they are keeping up with monthly expenses and 4% saying they are hopelessly behind (versus 1% of Republicans and 3% of independents). However, solid majorities of all three groups say they are, at a minimum, keeping up with all monthly expenses.

In the short-term, respondents' personal economic outlook is rosy. Three in five (59%) say they are optimistic that they will improve their personal financial situation over the next month, while one-third (35%) are pessimistic about their short-term financial status. Among the most optimistic are married respondents, with two-thirds (64%) expressing confidence in their own financial direction.

The interactive survey of 13,456 likely voters nationwide was conducted Jan. 27 through 30. It has a margin of error of +/- 0.9 percentage points.

New Zogby Poll on Government Surveillance

The President's vigorous defense of an anti-terror surveillance program may be a hard sell to a public obsessed with privacy and civil liberties, a new Zogby Interactive poll suggests.

The survey of 13,456 likely voters finds Americans largely unwilling to surrender civil liberties -- even if it's to prevent terrorists from carrying out attacks -- a significant departure from their views in the months immediately after the 9/11 terror attacks. Even routine security measures, like random searches of bags, purses, and other packages, were opposed by half (50%) of respondents in the survey.

Other measures fared worse. Just 37% would be willing to allow random searches of their cars -- a dramatic drop in support compared to a survey conducted by Zogby International in December, 2001. Support for regular roadblocks to facilitate such searches was even lower, with just one-third of voters (33%) in favor. Four years ago, 59% backed such measures.

Two sensitive privacy issues associated with the President's communications surveillance program, however, scored worst of all. Just 28% are willing to allow their telephone conversations to be monitored, and 25% favor allowing random searches of mail.

Self-described conservatives are far more supportive of the security measures than self-described liberals, as the chart here indicates.	Overall Level of support Dec. 2001	Overall Level of support NOW	Conserva-tives NOW	Liberals NOW
Allowing your purse, handbag, briefcase, backpack, or packages to be searched at random anywhere (e.g. while shopping, entering and exiting public buildings)	63%	44%	70%	23%
Allowing your car to be searched at random	60%	37%	64%	15%
Allowing your mail to be searched at random	55%	25%	50%	3%
Allowing your telephone conversations to be monitored	38%	28%	62%	1%
Allowing video surveillance of public places, like street corners and neighborhoods	82%	70%	89%	55%
Allowing regular roadblocks to search vehicles	59%	33%	58%	10%

Despite the opposition to such measures, the voting public is at ease with some already commonplace anti-terror tools. Seven out of 10 indicated they would favor allowing video surveillance of public places, including street corners and neighborhoods -- a drop from the 82% who favored this in the 2001 poll, but still a large majority. And while 44% supported random searches of purses, handbags, briefcases, backpacks and other packages, it represents a 19-point drop in support since 2001.

Significantly, voters responding to the survey seemed generally supportive of government secrecy in the war on terror. Nearly half (45%) favored at least "a great deal" of secrecy. An additional 42% indicated they would support some secrecy. Just 12% were willing to accept absolutely no secrecy on the part of the government in wartime. However, in a troubling sign for the Administration, these numbers mark a significant slide from October 2001, when nearly two-thirds of Americans (64%) would accept at least a great deal of government secrecy.

How much government secrecy are you willing to accept during wartime?	NOW	Oct. 2001
Absolute secrecy	15%	26%
Great deal of secrecy	30%	38%
Some secrecy	42%	29%
No secrecy	12%	4%

The survey revealed that different demographic groups hold decidedly different views on government surveillance and civil liberties. Married and older respondents tended to be more willing to accept government secrecy than their counterparts, as did small city and rural dwellers and those with household ties to the military. Men supported government secrecy more than women. And as noted above, there was a stark partisan component to responses: While 86% of Republicans were willing to accept significant government secrecy, just 12% of Democrats said the same. Independents, meanwhile, split the difference, with 37% willing to support high levels of government secrecy.

Similar trends played out on the questions of surrendering civil liberties in trade for protection from terror.

Fewer Than Two-in-Five Say Americans Have 'Post-9/11' Mindset

The survey finds strong doubts that Americans have moved beyond Sept. 10, 2001 in their thinking. Just 38% of respondents indicated they believed Americans had adopted a post-9/11 mentality, while 30% said Americans were still living in a pre-9/11 world.

Considering the political parties: 61% said the GOP has adopted a "post 9/11 mindset," while just 27% said the same about the Democratic Party.

Political Stand

Just in case anyone was wondering where I stand politically - I have been a registered Republican ever since I began to vote. My belief system more closely follows the platform of that party. Morally, I could not be a part of a political party that condones abortion-on-demand and late-term abortions. I just do not agree with the position that abortion is OK because it is a woman's body and she can do with it what she wants. From the time the sperm and the egg combine and begin to divide, there is a new DNA, unique, different than the mother. To me that is a NEW life. Another reason is that, as far as I know, the entire birth process - the timing, the contractions, etc., is controlled, not by the mother, but by the placenta. It produces chemicals that trigger physical changes in the mother. To me that is another proof that this incredibly complex organism is it's own person. I believe that the baby has rights, even before it is born.

For these, and other reasons, I have been a Republican.

HOWEVER, during the past 5 years, I have seen the steady, seemingly intentional erosion of individual rights, such as privacy. The Patriot Act, which President Bush says is necessary in the war on terror, can easily be used on ANY group that the government deems a threat. I have known too many politicians to put any real faith or trust in them to be truthful or trustworthy. And the higher the office, the less I trust them. In the Republican Party as a whole, there continues to seem to be a push to move this country to a form of Theocratic Democracy, where everyone will have to conform to their values and morals. That is not of God and not Biblical.

In a recent sermon I preached at my church from the book of 1 Samuel, I related how King Saul, had been told by the prophet Samuel to wait for his arrival before they went out to battle the enemy army that greatly outnumbered them. Saul waited the week he was supposed to, but Samuel did not come. Then Saul, a civil King of God's chosen people who God selected Himself, took on the role of a priest and led out in the sacrifical service. When Samuel did arrive, he told Saul that what he had done was not according to God's will. Even Saul, with his background, was not appropriate to lead out in a worship service. I fear that many Christian's in politics and even in the church, are wanting to make the mistake that Saul did.

Anyway, for those and other reasons, in the last election, I voted Libertarian.

Christmas! Again

--I'm adding this with no comments. K

'Christmas Season' to Begin Early in 2006

By AFA Journal
February 1, 2006

(AgapePress) - The American Family Association says it will begin in June 2006 reminding national retailers that the word "Christmas" is not a four-letter word for most Americans, and it deserves to be included in store promotions and greetings in November and December.

AFA founder and chairman Don Wildmon does not want retailers to have the same excuse some used this past Christmas season. "We will start this summer to give retailers plenty of time to include the simple sentiment in their promotional activity," says Wildmon.

AFA and other pro-family groups, as well as conservative radio and TV personalities, raised the issue over the Christmas holidays in 2005, when it became obvious that many retailers had removed the word from their promotions.

"Christians are growing tired of being ignored except when stores want their money," says the AFA founder of the Mississippi-based ministry. "The outpouring of frustration over the banning of the word 'Christmas' was amazing."

For example, AFA ended its boycott of Target after that company changed its policy and announced that it would include Christmas in advertising and in-store promotions. Nearly 700,000 people had signed up at AFA's website to join the Target boycott.

Other stores also made changes after being deluged by complaints from AFA supporters. Lowe's, for example, announced that it was going to "avoid confusion" and sell "Christmas trees" instead of "holiday trees." Walgreens, Sears, Kroger, and Wal-Mart are among companies which responded positively.

"This was dramatic evidence," notes Wildmon, "of the simple but effective power of consumers communicating their concerns to the businesses where they shop."

New Zogby Poll on Iran

As President Bush reaffirms his intention to thwart Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, a wide majority of Americans favor military action together with allies to prevent Iran from realizing those efforts, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.

In his State of the Union speech Tuesday night, Bush declared that Iran "is defying the world with its nuclear ambitions, and the nations of the world must not permit the Iranian regime to gain nuclear weapons. America will continue to rally the world to confront these threats."

The comprehensive new Zogby poll shows that 64% of respondents favor joint U.S.-European military intervention to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and 63% favor joint military action with the United Nation to stop Iran's nuclear program. Another 47% would support unilateral military action by the U.S. against Iran.

"These are surprising findings for me," said Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, who said a majority of "Americans are telling us that they would prefer we pack our bags and leave Iraq now."

"And yet, Americans appear ready to do some damage to Iran if it proceeds with its nuclear program. They are not necessarily ready to stand on the front lines by themselves. They would prefer that Israel take the lead, or that it be a joint effort with Europe or the United Nations. But still, it is surprising that Americans are this militant," Zogby said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog organization, said in a report Tuesday that Iran had obtained documents and drawings on the black market that serve no other purpose than to make an atomic warhead. Tehran warned of an "end of diplomacy" if plans to refer it to the U.N. Security Council are carried out. The agency also announced that Tehran has not yet started small-scale uranium enrichment, but has announced plans to do so, the Associated Press reported.

One plausible scenario, which sees Israel launching an attack against Iran's nuclear program like it did against Iraq's program in the early 1980s, also wins majority support from Americans. And if Israel were to act, nearly half of respondents -- 47% -- said they would support U.S. military support for the Israeli effort, including providing intelligence for the Israeli Defense Forces.

Among the 47% of respondents who said they supported U.S. military action against Iran to halt their nuclear program, 74% of that subset said they would favor joint air strikes with European allies. Some favored more than one measure to counter Iran as described in the following chart:

Options Favored by Supporters of Action to Halt Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Option Supported:	Using U.S. special- ops forces	Air strikes - US alone	Joint air strikes with Israel	Joint air strikes with Europe	Invasion to secure Iran Nuke sites	Invasion to topple Iran govt; occupy	Pre-emptive nuclear strike against Iran	None of these choices
% Favor	58%	64%	56%	74%	36%	25%	24%	5%

In the worst-case scenario of an Iranian nuclear attack against the United States, 66% said they would support nuclear retaliation, while 21% said they would not support such a reaction. Meanwhile, nearly half -- 48% -- said they would support a U.S. nuclear response to an Iranian nuclear attack against an ally, and 39% said they would favor U.S. nuclear retaliation should Iran use a nuclear weapon against any nation, whether or not they were a U.S. ally.

North Korean Nuclear Ambitions Also Targeted

The poll also finds Americans willing to deal as harshly with a nuclear North Korea . North Korea has blustered on the international stage about its advancing nuclear weapons program, but it is yet unclear whether they have developed a nuclear bomb. Nearly half of all respondents said they favor a U.S. nuclear reaction should North Korea use such weapons against South Korea or Japan, the survey shows.

The interactive survey of 13,456 likely voters nationwide was conducted Jan. 27 through 30. It has a margin of error of +/- 0.9 percentage points.