New Zogby Poll on Iran

As President Bush reaffirms his intention to thwart Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, a wide majority of Americans favor military action together with allies to prevent Iran from realizing those efforts, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.

In his State of the Union speech Tuesday night, Bush declared that Iran "is defying the world with its nuclear ambitions, and the nations of the world must not permit the Iranian regime to gain nuclear weapons. America will continue to rally the world to confront these threats."

The comprehensive new Zogby poll shows that 64% of respondents favor joint U.S.-European military intervention to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and 63% favor joint military action with the United Nation to stop Iran's nuclear program. Another 47% would support unilateral military action by the U.S. against Iran.

"These are surprising findings for me," said Pollster John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, who said a majority of "Americans are telling us that they would prefer we pack our bags and leave Iraq now."

"And yet, Americans appear ready to do some damage to Iran if it proceeds with its nuclear program. They are not necessarily ready to stand on the front lines by themselves. They would prefer that Israel take the lead, or that it be a joint effort with Europe or the United Nations. But still, it is surprising that Americans are this militant," Zogby said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog organization, said in a report Tuesday that Iran had obtained documents and drawings on the black market that serve no other purpose than to make an atomic warhead. Tehran warned of an "end of diplomacy" if plans to refer it to the U.N. Security Council are carried out. The agency also announced that Tehran has not yet started small-scale uranium enrichment, but has announced plans to do so, the Associated Press reported.

One plausible scenario, which sees Israel launching an attack against Iran's nuclear program like it did against Iraq's program in the early 1980s, also wins majority support from Americans. And if Israel were to act, nearly half of respondents -- 47% -- said they would support U.S. military support for the Israeli effort, including providing intelligence for the Israeli Defense Forces.

Among the 47% of respondents who said they supported U.S. military action against Iran to halt their nuclear program, 74% of that subset said they would favor joint air strikes with European allies. Some favored more than one measure to counter Iran as described in the following chart:

Options Favored by Supporters of Action to Halt Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Option Supported:	Using U.S. special- ops forces	Air strikes - US alone	Joint air strikes with Israel	Joint air strikes with Europe	Invasion to secure Iran Nuke sites	Invasion to topple Iran govt; occupy	Pre-emptive nuclear strike against Iran	None of these choices
% Favor	58%	64%	56%	74%	36%	25%	24%	5%

In the worst-case scenario of an Iranian nuclear attack against the United States, 66% said they would support nuclear retaliation, while 21% said they would not support such a reaction. Meanwhile, nearly half -- 48% -- said they would support a U.S. nuclear response to an Iranian nuclear attack against an ally, and 39% said they would favor U.S. nuclear retaliation should Iran use a nuclear weapon against any nation, whether or not they were a U.S. ally.

North Korean Nuclear Ambitions Also Targeted

The poll also finds Americans willing to deal as harshly with a nuclear North Korea . North Korea has blustered on the international stage about its advancing nuclear weapons program, but it is yet unclear whether they have developed a nuclear bomb. Nearly half of all respondents said they favor a U.S. nuclear reaction should North Korea use such weapons against South Korea or Japan, the survey shows.

The interactive survey of 13,456 likely voters nationwide was conducted Jan. 27 through 30. It has a margin of error of +/- 0.9 percentage points.